Home·Strategic Situations
How we think, in five situations. Worked as engagements, told without names.
Situation 01
The situation. A profitable B2B services company kept receiving inbound interest from a neighboring country. Half the team saw a growth engine; half saw an expensive distraction.
The work. Demand evidence first, not excitement: sizing, competitive density, cost-to-serve. Then the entry mode compared honestly — the distributor route looked fastest, and gave the weakest control over pricing and data. The choice: a phased own entity, with kill criteria set before launch.
Situation 02
The situation. A company, profitable and flat, with four internally beloved expansion ideas and no way to pick between them.
The work. All four modeled, none spared. Two died on economics — the market was real but too small for the effort. One was a repackaging of what the company already did. One survived contact with the numbers, and got the resources.
Situation 03
The situation. An owner offered a stake in a key supplier. Vertical integration, presented as "security".
The work. Scenario and downside modeling: what the deal costs in cash, attention and optionality, and what must be true for it to pay. Two of the three "must-be-trues" were already eroding. Recommendation: decline — sign a supply agreement instead.
Situation 04
The situation. A services firm under board pressure to "adopt AI", with a vendor deck for every meeting and no map of its own.
The work. A process and data audit; twelve candidate use cases mapped onto the P&L; seven killed on payback or data reality. Two pilots designed with success metrics fixed in advance. One scaled.
Situation 05
The situation. A fifteen-year company in a commoditizing market, still competing on habit and loyalty.
The work. Where the money actually was — segment by segment, not in the aggregate. Sunset of two legacy lines, re-pricing of the core, a focused service tier for the one segment that still paid for quality.
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